Survivor 42, Episode 12 - Caterpillar to a Butterfly
KULA KULA (NIGHT 21)
I believe a celebration is in order. Last episode’s Tribal Council was ABSOLUTELY INSANE. Lindsay chose the right box and survived Survivor DO or DIE, and if that wasn’t dramatic enough, Drea used her Knowledge is Power Advantage to try and steal Mike’s idol, however, it was to no avail. Mike gave it to Omar, Drea looked a fool, and she got voted out. Again, awesome!
Alongside those juicy nuggets is the ripple effects of Lindsay’s amulet being the last one standing, thus, becoming an Immunity Idol that she has to play at 6 at the latest. AKA, Lindsay will be using that idol, at least, to put herself through to Final 5 OR if she wins immunity (again), she could make her idol a life saver and game changer for someone else. Remember when Lindsay was a total ghost this season? Well, Casper is a real person and serious contender for the million bucks.
Lindsay isn’t the only one with a Joker like smile on their face after Tribal. Omar wanted to unleash his evil laugh because of how well his orchestrated plan went. Drea told Omar the KIP secret and he used that knowledge (come on Drea!) perfectly to take Mike’s idol, fool Drea, and get her out. However, Drea didn’t leave quietly. She highlighted MIke’s likelihood of winning if he got to the end and Omar being behind the move.
This brings us back to Omar and his evil plans. He feels he “has MIke” and is close with Jonathan too. His goal is to pin them against one another and force them to scramble to duke it out for the votes leaving Omar to choose a side and thus, avoid another elimination while being the engine behind another elimination. To reassure MIke and keep Mike in the palm of his hand, he GIVES MIKE BACK HIS IMMUNITY IDOL which is huge because now Mike can just play it and advance to final 5 right? Omar’s thinking must be thinking that he gives MIke’s idol back, seals trust between them, and then can manipulate Mike to do whatever Omar wants or use Mike as a shield for himself while still making Mike comfortable enough to not use his idol.
On the other hand, Mike isn’t a dummy. He’s not just a Mr. Clean lookalike without a brain of his own. Mike is smart and has shown his savvy all game long. Mike realizes Omar was behind Drea getting out 100% and even does what Mike does and verbally praises Omar after Tribal. But, in the next shot we see Mike confessing to the camera that he knows people will come for him including Omar. Hell, Mike would go after MIke, but Mike also knows that it’s time to get Omar. It’s time to capture the snitch or bag the elephant. Mike knows that Omar is playing a winning game and he’s ready to put out the biggest fire in the game and in turn, win himself.
But Mike can’t do it all himself nor is he the only one who realizes Omar’s strong position in the game after the Drea vote. Maryanne realizes Omar went from a “caterpillar to a butterfly”. I loved Mike and Maryanne’s conversation and confessionals. It’s impressive to hear both players express the understanding that Omar is the top dog, or emu, and even if they trust him, which they both do and have all game, that they must act now to get Omar out because if they don’t it will cost them their best chance at winning.
Maryanne shares her secret of an EXTRA VOTE with Mike but she shares something more important with us the viewers. That is, this game is about trust and building relationships and being yourself, BUT also that there is a moment, if you’re lucky enough to get to, when it’s “WINNING TIME” and Maryanne knows it. The moment is almost palpable and it’s only the beginning of the episode. Maryanne may have once seemed annoying, naive, green, and easy to manipulate, but on Day 22 she is in the driver seat of a game changing move to take out this season’s king, but will she have what it takes…I think we will find out.
DAY 22
The sun rises on a new day but so does the conversations for who’s next. Maryanne shares Mike’s paranoia with Omar, Lindsay, and Romeo. Lindsay STILL wants to get Jonathan out because he’s a challenge threat but really a threat to her alpha status in the game. Lindsay fumbles here because she doesn’t realize that Jonathan is not a threat to win. Lastly, Jonathan has a gameplan of his own. He’s out on Lindsay and Omar. His two trusted TAKU allies have been with him all game but he realizes too that Omar’s threat to win level skyrocketed at Tribal and it’s time to give his game a tranquilizer.
REWARD CHALLENGE
spin to unspool rope, maneuver through obstacles (balance beam), untie keys on balance beam to unlock puzzle pieces, and complete the puzzle.
REWARD
SUSTANENCE - chicken and vegetables
DECADENCE - chocolate
Fun challenge. Maryanne ended up spinning the opposite way from how she unspooled to try and undizzy herself and it broke Probst. Maryanne is growing on everyone. Then, out of nowehere, Omar wins reward. He nails the puzzle. A rare, non Jonathan/Lindsay win.
“My niece is afraid to try anything new and I was terrified of all the challenges and I hope she sees this and inspires her to take those risks.” - Omar
Probst eats this quote and opportunity to synthsize for the audience what Survivor is all about. If you follow this blog or my YouTube channel, you know, that I’m all in on Survivor for many reasons, but one of the biggies is that Survivor is about so much more, including Omar’s message of taking risks and meeting challenges head on.
Now, Omar is faced with the choice of SUSTANENCE or DECADENCE. I did a science lesson one time about people and the choices they make and why. I gave students who completed the “exit ticket” or check for understanding question with a choice between a french fry and a blueberry reward for finishing aka connecting the lesson’s lesson in real life for the students. In this case the blueberry was the sustenenence and the fries were decadence. You know what 9/10 kids chose? Decadence. Fries. I bet Omar does the same.
REWARD TWIST
There’s always a twist. Come on now. This is Survivor 42. Drop the 4 and keep the 2 aka 2 choices of what to do with every aspect of the game. The choices are fun, a great juxtaposition, and strategic.
SUSTANENCE - Grilled Chicken and Veggies, 2 OTHERS JOIN OMAR
DECADENCE - Chocolate Cake and Cookies, 3 OTHERS JOIN OMAR
Choosing sustanence you get to fuel your body with stuff your body needs. Day 22 and you haven’t had much at all to chow down on and your body could really use this healthy fuel to propel you for the last couple days. The catch is you only get to take 2 people with you, thus upseting 3.
VS
Choosing decadence you get to inject your body with the ultimate indulgence and least productive food your body could intake in its deprived state, chocolate and cookies. You would get energy from it but not the same effect as the sustenence. The catch is obvious and a good one (well done game creators) that you give up the more productive fuel for the strategic gain of rewarding a 3rd person.
My guess is everyone would choose DECADENCE. Even our nutritionist Lindsay and 6’4” 280lb and dropping Jonathan. The strategy advantage at this stage of the game is far too great to pass on. Every reward and every conversation with people counts.
OMAR - chooses DECADENCE as the reward and Romeo, Maryanne, and Mike. He leaves out Lindsay and Jonathan but not without justifying it by encouraging them to eat all the rice portioned for today. Even in the moment of tough strategic gameplay, Omar meets the challenge with the right game move.
Omar’s reward is setting the stage for the showdown at Tribal Council. The showdown will involve lines being drawn, idols being played, and someone going home. Lindsay wants Jonathan out. Mike wants Omar out. Omar wants Mike or Jonathan out. Maryanne has an idol and an EXTRA VOTE to throw another monkey wrench out there, and Romeo is a vote.
Earlier I said it’s “winning time” and that means pulling out all stops and leaving no bit of information on the table that could be used to help your game. Now the real reward comes. Time alone for strategy. Plus, Omar leaves Jonathan out.
Back at camp Jonathan and Lindsay are both playing their best bed salesman to make one another comfortable. Then, Mike and Lindsay talk and she slips out her secret of having an Immunity Idol.
DING DING DING!
Mike now has information to put a more solid plan into place. He takes the info to Jonathan, who’s already on Team Mike, and more importantly Mike brings the plan to Maryanne about Omar and then leaks out Lindsay’s secret. The big deal here is Lindsay is exposed. She told Mike that Jonathan is next but if he wins immunity then it’s Mike. Combine that with her never sharing with Maryanne the amulet turned idol, and you have a well oiled alliance between Lindsay and Omar.
If Lindsay wins immunity she can play her idol, which she has to at 6 (which Mike knows and tells Jonathan and Maryanne) for Omar. AKA Mike’s plan takes a HUGE HIT if Lindsay wins immunity. If Lindsay doesn’t win immunity, she could play her idol and keep herself safe OR still play the idol for Omar to save him and make a big time move, but would risk her own game. In either case, if Lindsay gives her idol to Omar, I think this type of move at a Tribal would set off a 4th of July of Advantages where Mike plays his idol, Maryanne plays her idol and either Jonathan or Romeo go home.
Buckle up folks, here we go!
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
This immunity is the biggest of the season.
Hop over 3 hurdles, untie steps to build staircase, maneuver table maze balls up a pole, and sink two balls through a table maze to safety.
AFter the first batch of pieces, Lindsay emerges with an early lead but its close. The second batch of steps gives Omar a slight lead and he’s first to the ball maneuvering.
It all comes down to the table maze. Jonathan lands his first ball and Lindsay is right behind him. They’re at the same tough corner and Lindsay drops. Jonathan has a chance and he drops. Then, they’re back again. Same spot. They both navigate it and it’s neck and neck.
Lindsay wins!
WHAT LINDSAY’S WIN MEANS
Holy cow. It was as close as it gets but Rocky is starting to beat Drago. Jonathan losing and Lindsay winning is gigantic. Now Lindsay has immunity and is safe for final 5. She also has an Immunity Idol and it has to be played at Final 6 aka this Tribal Council. We know that she wants Jonathan out and that the next threat for her is Mike. We know that Mike wanted to get Omar and we know that Lindsay is allied strongly with Omar. Mike believes that Lindsay will play her idol for Omar and thus create total havoc for Mike and Maryanne’s plans of getting Omar out.
So what happens?
LINDSAY DOESN’T PLAY HER IDOL - 0% chance in reality because it’s a move for Lindsay to make in front of the jury and she has to take that opportunity.
LINDSAY PLAYS HER IDOL FOR OMAR - Keeps her number one ally in the game, gives her a leg up on him, at least in her mind, the old “if it weren’t for me…” angle and this move makes the vote either Mike or Jonathan. In this case, I think Jonathan goes down.
LINDSAY PLAYS HER IDOL FOR SOMEONE ELSE - Whether she sees it or not, this move would be best because it would take Omar out on her terms and thus she is the engine behind eliminating the most likely winner.
SHOTS IN THE DARK - Everyone still has their Shot in the Dark and this Tribal is the last one you can play it at, so no matter what Lindsay chooses to do with her idol, anyone could play the Shot and reek havoc all over the game. Riddle me this, Lindsay has immunity, plays her idol for Omar, Mike plays his idol, Maryanne plays her idol, Jonathan takes his Shot and hits it and so does Romeo. Well, all 6 are safe, Probst’s head explodes and we all wonder what the hell just happened? All highly unlikely for obvious Voce reasons but also because nobody will give up their vote, right?
My guess - Lindsay plays her idol for Omar.
PRE-TRIBAL SCRAMBLE
Well we know immediately what Jonathan’s plan B is Romeo. Lindsay’s plan is Jonathan as usual, but she adds one juicy nugget about her idol. A nugget I didn’t have on my menu above which either shows how dumb I am or how dumb/smart she is. She’s ready to not play her idol so it DOESN’T GET RECIRCULATED. When Lindsay said this I felt like she was Steve Harvey asking for the number 7 answer on the board that only 2 people surveyed said.
Lindsay is not going to play her idol at all because she’s afraid that it will go back into the game after Tribal. This tells me she is so confident Omar will be safe and her and Omar have such a stranglehold on the game and the votes that they figure 5 votes will land on Jonathan (including Mike’s) and 2 on Mike (including Jonathan’s). At this moment I have the episode paused and as I type I’m DYING for someone or something to completely obliterate their plans!
Maryanne is ready to make the Omar plan still happen and she’s ready to put the wheels in motion. Maryanne knows that Omar can win and more importantly she has the advantages to make things happen but now she needs people to buy in and take the risk that this point in the game dictates. Maryanne begins to tell Mike this and before she can finish, Mike is shooting it down in favor of a safer plan to take out Romeo. The Denny’s crowd behavior is rearing its head, but Maryanne does get her plan out to Mike, then Romeo, and then Mike and Jonathan.
The plan to take out Omar is Maryanne votes for Omar along with Mike, Jonathan, and Romeo. Maryanne would use her other vote on Romeo. Lastly, Omar and Lindsay vote for Jonathan and think they have all the votes accounted for.
HERE WE GO!
TRIBAL COUNCIL
Romeo’s dead on, the shift in the game is happening. The shift is coming to who is best to sit next to at the end. There is no more time to waste. The time is now to make your move and consider the finals.
There was also talk about Immunity Idols and Omar saying he doesn’t have one and he could be on the receiving end of a blindside. Uh-oh.
VOTES
Jonathan 2
Romeo 2
Omar 3
WELL DONE MARYANNE!!!! and Romeo.
They did it. They did what was needed to be done. Maryanne saw Omar’s game being insurmountable at a final 3 and the moment was now to strike. Is Maryanne a Cobra Kai? Strike First, Strike Hard, No Mercy! Maryanne showed no mercy and thanks to her EXTRA VOTE and Romeo, Omar was voted out 3-2-2.
I LOVED EVERY SECOND OF IT and so did the jury, which brings me to…
RANKINGS
12. Lydia
11. Chanelle (1st on Jury)
10. Rocksroy (2nd on Jury)
9. Tori (3rd on Jury)
8. Hai (4th on Jury)
7. Drea (5th on Jury)
6. Omar (6th on Jury)
NO CHANCE (IT’S BACK!)
5. Jonathan - Failed on 1st Drea blindside. Only arguments are winning challenges, surviving at 6’4” on 500 calories a day is hardest (nobody would care), and he bit his tongue (like everyone). He hasn’t made any moves and wussed out on the Omar vote to play it safe with Mike. NO CHANCE!
NEEDS A MIRACLE BUT IT’S POSSIBLE…MAYBE
4. Romeo - Someone had to vote with Maryanne’s two votes to take out overwhelming favorite Omar and Romeo stepped up! Always knew he was capable of orchestrating moves. (check the blog history) Slim chance for him. He needs to do something like find an idol and use it to save someone and his lone vote be the decider in a blindside. Winning final 4 fire would help too. He needs the stars to align to even have a chance. Likely in final 3 with zero votes to win.
CONTENDERS
3. Lindsay - Another challenge win but a big time gameplay/overconfidence snafu. She could have played her idol for Omar, saved him, and showed the jury a big move. Instead, she was waaaaay too overconfident with the necklace around her neck and Omar by her side thinking they were controlling all the votes. She let her competitive challenge self continue to target Jonathan and it blinded her to the bigger moves, the smarter moves, the game winning resume moves she needed to make at Tribal. Lindsay’s stock is plummeting like Netflix’s, and I don’t think it will recover. She just lost her biggest ally and got caught with her pants down, well her game did.
2. Mike - Mike thought that Drea’s endorsement was the kiss of death for him, but I’d argue his paranoia getting in the way of being part of the Omar vote may cost him $1M. Mike and Jonathan liked the safe and easy road for the vote with Romeo, but like Gretzky said “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take”. For Mike, this may be the only miss on his resume, but unless he gets Maryanne out, it’s one fire that will burn him inside forever.
FAVORITES
1. Maryanne - Last time I had Maryanne at #2 and wrote
Willing to stand up for something bigger than her game aka has a story. Found another idol, plus still has an EXTRA VOTE. Super likeable. Needs a big move with the idol or EV. Erika archetype, will be tough to beat. - Me
Congrats to Maryanne! I think she just won. Really, I think it’s over. Let’s talk it out. It’s down to final 5. Maryanne just pulled off the biggest move of the season using her EXTRA VOTE to get out the undeniably biggest threat in the game, Omar. Plus, Maryanne has an idol that she can play for herself at Tribal to guarantee final 4. If she wins immunity, which she is yet to do, she could make another move by playing her idol to save someone and make more imprints on the jury. She gets to final 4 guaranteed.
At final 4 everyone has at least a chance to get to the end by winning the final Immunity Challenge or by winning the fire making challenge. This is the last and only hurdle between Maryanne winning the game. Well, maybe Mike has a case, but that’s it. If Maryanne wins the final 4 immunity, game-set-match. Champ of 42. If she loses and the winner is stupid enough to take Maryanne and not put her through the fire challenge a la Xander’s dumb ass with Erika in 41, Maryanne wins.
BUT…
If Maryanne loses the final 4 immunity and the winner of the challenge doesn't take Maryanne aka sends her to fire, and she loses the fire making challenge, then that opens the door for Mike, Lindsay, Romeo, and that’s it. Like I said earlier, Jonathan has no chance.
My guess is Maryanne makes her way into the final Tribal and wins Survivor 42. Her using the EXTRA VOTE to stand up for herself, her game on her terms, AND maybe most of all, Mike and Jonathan in that same vote played it like cowards by voting Romeo giving the jury more fuel to vote Maryanne the true person to go from caterpillar to butterfly with identical $500K wings. I can’t wait to find out.
Thanks for reading. Until the next time, be sure to outlike, outcomment, and outshare the rest all season long. If you like the blog be sure to follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter, and subscribe to the YouTube channel.
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