Survivor 43, Ep. 13: Snap Some Necks and Cash Some Checks
THOUGHTS HEADING INTO FINALE
Ok, if you’re reading this, then you saw episode 12’s instant classic of a Tribal Council with Jesse making an all-time move blindsiding his biggest ally Cody as he was about to blindside Karla and make a game winning move. Instead, Jesse channeled his inner Cobra Kai and struck first, struck hard, and showed no mercy to Cody and executed the best move in a loooooooong time. Plus, his move was so big and so good, Karla was even spooked into playing her idol putting the cherry on top.
Now, Jesse has the game in hand. If he gets to the end, I will reiterate my prediction from last week’s blog, Jesse will win and win unanimously. It won’t be close. It’s an unassailable case. Score one for the strategist and big move maker fans of Survivor who after 41 and 42’s back to back underdog winners, we crown a new titan of the game for the big moves made and the control of the game Jesse had.
But, he’s got to get there. So, with that in mind, let’s go through what I think everyone’s path to the end and winning would look like, starting with the favorite.
JESSE’S PATH
To get to the $1,000,000 and title of Sole Survivor, Jesse will play his SECRET IDOL THAT NOBODY KNOWS HE HAS to get to the Final Four and from there, if all things we expect to happen, do happen, Jesse will have the following options.
Play Hidden Idol at 5 ➡ Guaranteed Final 4
Win Final 4 Challenge ➡ Have an even stronger case for winning
Lose Final 4 Challenge ➡ Have to win at Fire. This is his only way to lose blow it.
Prediction: Jesse wins with a unanimous vote.
KARLA & CASSIDY’S PATHS
Need Jesse out
Best Final 3 ➡ Against Owen & Gabler
OWEN & GABLER’S PATHS
Need Jesse out
They don’t have a chance to win. There is no path. Sorry.
Now, onto the finale…
TRIBAL COUNCIL REPLAY Night 23
Jesse recaps his victory lap and he deserves it. We are then reminded that they are going to a new beach “to start over”. Jeff loves saying it and this must TOTALLY SUCK, except for Jesse, who just became a Survivor icon.
PLAYERS MAKE THEIR PRELIMINARY CASES
GABLER - Thinks highly of his game, but it feels like he’s the only one to think that.
OWEN - “Has to be perfect” but he knows he has no chance.
JESSE - Reminds us he can punch his ticket to the Final 4 and nobody knows it. Getcha popcorn ready!
CASSIDY - Tells us she’s been on the right side of every vote. Hmmm…
KARLA - Gives the “fighter” story. She got beat up the last 24 days, has no idol, but is still here.
FINAL ADVANTAGE Day 24
Ready or not, here we go!
The word scramble has many words and creates a saying. Players can only search for the advantage once they unscramble all the words.
“I stand near the sea with a rock at my surface. Long since lifeless, but knot without service. Sprint to find me, and reveal my purpose.” - Final Advantage Clue
Karla is first out of the blocks and takes off down the beach, busted ankle and all. Owen is close behind to put the heat on her. In the end, Owen blows it. He gets to the tree with the advantage first, but Karla closes the gap and inches him out to nab the “slight advantage” at the Final 5 Immunity Challenge.
Karla is on the bottom. We knew it, she knew it, and Owen knew it. Only Owen could have stopped her (Cass, Gabler, and Jesse never finished the scramble) but he doesn’t.
Prediction: Even with the slight advantage, Karla still doesn’t win. Owen wins the challenge.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Manuever buoy through obstacles (swim in water, up and over bamboo ladder, up and under a horizontal ladder) from water to land, use handles to move puzzle pieces at the beach up and over a see-saw, over a hurdle, and solve the phase puzzle
REWARD - Steak, Potatoes, Wine, Cheese at Sanctuary
Karla’s Advantage - 10 puzzle blocks already at her station = Less Trips
Owen gets to the puzzle pieces first, but Karla has a HUGE advantage with 10 blocks already done for her. Owen is able to catch up to Karla first. Gabler, Cassidy, and finally Jesse all get there. It all comes down to the puzzle.
Like the advantage clue, it’s a word scramble phrase.
Karla puts her long word “GUARANTEE”, but Owen has “DANGEROUS”, and Owen wins it and my prediction was correct.
“YOU CANNOT HIDE IN A DANGEROUS GAME”
Owen’s 3rd win guarantees him Final 4 and chooses to take Cassidy with him to the sanctuary. Devastating for Karla. All indications are she needed to win this challenge most of all (given we know that Jesse has the idol), but Jesse will almost certainly be the target of the vote.
THE SANCTUARY Day 24
It amazes me that Owen and Cassidy throw out Karla’s name at all. Cassidy is ADVOCATING FOR VOTING KARLA!?!!?! Ok, I get that Cassidy wants to eliminate Karla to distance her game from Karla’s and keep this “I was on the right side of every vote” narrative going but come on Cassidy.
BUT, if Jesse gets in, you’re NOT winning!
BACK AT THE BEACH…
Karla begins the Jesse push because he is by far the largest threat, but also wants to get the target off of her. Yet, Owen still fears Karla’s social savvy. Karla walks into a brick wall talking to Cassidy. I appreciate Karla’s hustle and all-in gameplay but it feels like this entire segment is a waste of time because there’s no drama.
OBVIOUS Vote - Jesse
CHALLENGE THREAT Vote - Cassidy
DUMB Vote - Karla or Gabler
Cassidy wants to vote Karla (Dumb Vote!), Jesse wants to vote Cassidy (Bigger Challenge Threat Vote), Karla wants to vote Jesse (Obvious Vote)
Prediction: Everyone votes Jesse. Jesse plays his secret idol and shocks the jury and other players AGAIN! Jesse votes Cassidy and gets voted out by Jesse’s single vote.
TRIBAL COUNCIL
Jesse puts his *you know what on the table when he pulls out his secret idol causing everyone’s jaw to drop and Jeanine to nearly fall over from her spot on the jury. Jesse is putting on a masterclass of how to leverage power in the new era of Survivor.
VOTES
Karla 4
Jesse 1 (doesn’t count)
Karla goes out but the story here is still Jesse. Jesse’s power move against Cody and pulling out the Jeanine idol at Tribal that nobody knew about garnered only a single vote cast on him. Everyone else still voted Karla. Now, Jesse isn’t stupid and ultimately there wasn’t another move to be made other than playing the idol on himself, but the fact that he only got one vote cast on him speaks volumes. The true power of the Hidden Immunity Idols comes when the knowledge of the idol IS HIDDEN!
Personally, I would have liked to see Jesse pull out the idol after the votes were cast and not at the top of Tribal. I respect the flex of power that it provided and the longer duration of awe that others felt, but I think there was even more “WOW factor” had he done it at the end before the votes.
FINAL IMMUNITY CHALLENGE Day 25
Long fork to manuever a bowl through a channel and place it on top. The entire structure is on a spring and if you hit it, the structure will topple the tower of bowls over.
15 bowls stacked on top wins it
Guarantees a spot in the Final!
The stakes cannot be higher for all players, but Jesse most of all. This is it. This is his game and his $1M to lose. A win here, and he wins $1M, a loss, and it comes down to 🔥
Gabler was out in the lead with 12 bowls stacked up and then the wind 🌬 blew him back to 3. Devastating. It opened the door for Cassidy and Owen to take advantage. Jesse never really in contention. Cassidy avoids catastrophe and avoids dropping at 14. Then, disaster strikes Owen and he drops.
CASSIDY WINS the Final Immunity Challenge!!! Her 3rd win is the biggest. She is guaranteed to plead her case to the jury and has the power to take one and send the other two to make 🔥. The decision comes down to who has a better chance of beating Jesse at fire making - Owen or Gabler? Whoever is better at making fire has to go against Jesse and beat him. Otherwise, Jesse wins $1,000,000.
PRE-FIRE MAKING SCRAMBLE
For Jesse, he’s playing for his kids, their futures, and their ability to avoid the struggles he faced. He is ONE fire away from winning the game that he should win. I’m rooting for him. I think others will be rooting for him. I think the show needs him to win. Big moves deserve to be rewarded.
If you’re Owen or Gabler, you have to want the challenge of going into Fire and taking Jesse down.
For Gabler, he wants to get into the fire making, beat Jesse, and then take the money to “donate it to veterans in need”. Wow, another great angle to take.
For Owen, he wants to get a shot at Jesse and should. Even though he doesn’t have a chance to win, the boost of a win at fire over Jesse could maybe earn at least Jesse’s vote.
For Cassidy, you just need Jesse NOT to be there against you in the final 3. For the record, if Jesse isn’t in the final 3, then this season is going to have a TERRIBLE ENDING. Sorry Cass. If Jesse loses, Cassidy likely wins the money as the 3rd straight “underdog” and in this scenario, as the “I guess I’ll vote for Cassidy” angle.
TRIBAL COUNCIL - FIRE MAKING CHALLENGE
Cassidy is guaranteed the chance to plead her case and tell her story to the jury and now has to make the decision of who to take to Final Tribal. Jesse makes his plea to Cassidy that if he is such a threat, then she should seize the moment and take out Jesse herself. For Cassidy, Owen and Gabler both want to go into fire but in the end it comes down to who she thinks has the best chance of beating Jesse in fire.
Cassidy takes Owen to the Final. Great move, the right move, and the lack luster move.
That means it will be Jesse vs. Gabler for a shot at a million dollars. Gabler will be a tough opponent in making fire. He’s definitely been all about fire for 25 days and he’s a surgeon. He performs heart surgery with his hands which has to be pressure packed and precision reliant, much like fire making.
FIRE MAKING CHALLENGE
HORRENDOUS, ABSOLUTELY F****NG HORRENDOUS!
I love Survivor, but this is an absolute tragedy for Jesse, viewers, and the show. Honestly. I understand that sometimes the best players don’t win, and maybe it happens too often. I understand that one mistake or one thing doesn’t go your way and poof, you’re out and it’s over.
But, if you watched this season, and you watched the look on jury members’ faces. Everyone, and I mean everyone was rooting for Jesse because HE SHOULD WIN! Jesse played the best game, he made the best moves, he made the big moves, he controlled the game as much as anyone really can and in the end, Cassidy, Gabler, and Owen get to battle it out for the $1,000,000 that should be in Jesse’s pocket.
Jesse, I pray that somehow you read this or that we can soon talk so that I can tell you that you deserved to win, you were the best player since Winners at War, and we all don’t want anybody else to win, represent Survivor 43 as the winner and to represent the strategy/big move side of Survivor. The show needed you to win and it’s an absolute tragedy that you won’t.
GOING INTO FINAL TRIBAL
I truly do not care who wins. Coming off of Jesse’s exit, I honestly hope that nobody backs Cassidy’s game, holds it against her that she didn’t take Jesse out herself, and choose Gabler’s pitch of donating the money to veterans in need.
I don’t want Cassidy to win. She played the Erika/Maryanne type game, she won 3 challenges, but overall I wasn’t impressed with her ever and she will only win if the underdog story and the “I can’t vote for Owen or Gabler” story has its day. TERRIBLE!
Owen is another underdog. He shouldn’t win either. The outcome of Owen winning is also TERRIBLE.
That’s right folks, I’m rooting for Gabler to win and donate the money to veterans. It’s the only palatable outcome to this season. He was an underdog but a different kind. He’s the old guy and probably shouldn’t have EVER had a chance of winning the game. I hope that will matter and people vote Gabler to win.
Ultimately, I believe that the jury is truly up in the air. None of them wanted to vote for anyone but Jesse, so this could go any direction and frankly, who cares.
Prediction: Cassidy wins 5-3 OR 5-2-1
FINAL TRIBAL COUNCIL
I appreciate that Jesse got the first word at Final Tribal. He takes it too well and reminds them that they need to earn the votes.
OUTWIT GAME
How did your game differentiate from the others? - Noelle
Gabler plays the angle that he was in with everyone at some point or another. Cassidy plays the “I was always on the right side of the vote” card and the woman card. Owen plays the underdog card but wins this round by saying he’s the superfan who was ready to play spectacularly, but then it all came crashing down in 24 hours.
Owen, when did you stick your neck on the line? - James
Noelle answers the question for Owen. Owen trusted Noelle when he lulled James and Karla into thinking the vote was on Owen and use her Steal a Vote to bamboozle James. Gabler gets Jeanine to admit she looked through his bag prior to the Elie vote and that’s when the AlliGabler persona was born.
Cassidy, what pre-merge move did you make to propel you into the merge? - Karla
This is a COCO question for Cassidy. She allied with Karla and James to help survive.
When did you use your social relationships to get information in this game and how you used that to get ahead? - Jesse
AlliGabler goes back underwater and is winning the jury over with laughter. Cassidy made sure she was the one on the right side of the vote. Everyone whoever through Cass’s name out there became her target.
Owen and Gabler, who were your allies in the game? - Jeanine
Owen trusted Noelle and then worked with Cassidy and Jesse. Gabler was with the Ride or Die, with Owen, with Jesse and Cody.
The most interesting part of the social phase of Final Tribal is in this question when Noelle and Jesse advocate for Gabler in the face of Cassidy’s pressing that the reason nobody wrote your name down was Gabler never being a real threat to win. This feels like “uncharted waters” because first and foremost, Jesse should have won and the jury were all ready to vote for Jesse and nobody else. Now, the jury has 3 people that all kind of sucked in comparison to Jesse and so the AlliGabler, lurk beneath the surface and silent killer social game actually has merit. Wow, really stretching to enjoy this ending.
OUTPLAY GAME
7 out of 9 individual Immunity Challenges were won by Gabler, Cassidy, and Owen.
At what point in the game did you have to lower your physical threat in the game? - Ryan
Cassidy was as shocked as we were that she won challenges and the Final Immunity.
I’d like to be walked through your decision to choose Gabler in fire making… - Noelle
Cassidy takes the “I earned it” and it was a strategic choice to make.
Can you tell me a moment when you fought until you couldn’t any longer? - Owen
Owen could have rehashed the Last Gasp but instead points to Karla winning the Final 5 Slight Advantage but in the end winning the Final 5 challenge anyway.
This phase seems to have more importance than it should typically. The final 3 did win 7/9 individual Immunity Challenges and that typically shouldn’t matter, but this season it kind of does. It’s part of their mutual underdog stories. I like that the challenges matter, but it probably won’t make much impact.
OUTLAST GAME
How do you feel like you handled the low points in this game? - James
Owen regrets and is ashamed of his actions toward James. Never good to apologize in Survivor.
What’s your biggest mistake and how do you own up to it? - Karla
At BAKA, Gabler put himself out there when he blew the challenge. Cassidy refers to her final conversations with Karla before her Final 5 vote and tries to make penance with Karla. Owen doesn’t regret his decisions and then salutes the values of the journey and the decisions it required.
Jesse owns up to his PhD in political science spending 6 years studying voting behaviors, campaigns and etc. (Furthering why he should have won). How did you persuade others to vote your way? - Jesse
Gabler cites the Elie vote and Cassidy cites the Ryan vote. The first stumble for Cassidy. Ryan blew it up and Jesse confirms that Cassidy had nothing to do with that vote. Owen doesn’t have a single vote that he was driving. (we know Owen). Credit for Owen for being honest.
The questions end and despite my total lack of interest in who wins, the most compelling aspect of Final Tribal is the fact that none of them deserve to win anymore than the others. There isn’t a slam dunk candidate because they’re all underdogs to Jesse who’s on the jury. I guess that makes the up in the air feeling of the final vote quasi interesting.
Prediction After Final Tribal: Cassidy wins 4-3-1 with Gabler 2nd, and Owen 3rd. I think they each get at least 1 vote because again, they all have a lack luster game in the wake of Jesse and thus the jury’s votes were totally up for grabs.
VOTES
VOTES
Gabler - 7
Cassidy - 1
Owen - 0
BOOM!!!
The winner of Survivor 43 and the title of Sole Survivor is GABLER!!! The AlliGabler proved me waaaaaay wrong and not only wins Survivor but wins it nearly unanimously. Then, Gabler immediately flips the script on my feeling of the outcome of this season by pledging to make history, unite people, validate the value of Survivor and what it does for people, and do something special and unprecedented and DONATE the $1,000,000 to veterans in need who are suffering from PTSD and other related issues.
👏👏STANDING OVATION👏👏
This is 100% NOT the ending that I wanted. I wanted the deserving winner, Jesse, to sweep the board and win. However, as I hoped for before the winner was announced, the palatable outcome of Gabler winning and donating the money has landed much greater than I realized it could. It’s an incredibly selfless gesture that only someone like Gabler could or would do. Plus, the cherry on top for Gabler’s donation is he DIDN’T USE IT to sway jury votes. If he did and he won, it loses value and the power of that moment and gesture is tainted. Say it immediately after you win Survivor, and you make history, or as Gabler would want it to be said, the cast of Survivor 43 made history and used the platform of Survivor to effect change for a greater good.
Survivor 43 and Survivor once again has motivated me to do something creative and thought provoking each Wednesday-Thursday for 13 weeks in writing this blog. I am grateful to everyone and anyone who has supported me through reading, sharing, and connecting with me through my blog, website, social media accounts, and in person through conversation to talk about the show I love so much. The sense of community that Survivor provides in my personal life with family and friends and digitally through connecting with other fans and former/current players has been a great addition to my life.
Looking forward to March 1, 2023 and the start of Survivor 44. Can’t wait to see how this next season will inspire my blog, website, and social next. Be sure to outlike, outcomment, and outshare the rest. Thank you again for the support.
The blog has spoken!
