Survivor 44, Ep. 12: I'm the Bandit
🔥 BURNING QUESTION HEADED INTO EPISODE 12 🔥
Will Carolyn be voted out tonight?
The teaser for this episode showed Yam Yam and Carson having this convo at the water well. Will it come true? I think the answer is Yes! She’s a MAJOR threat to sit next to at FTC and even the sitting ducks - Heidi, Lauren, and Jaime - would agree. I think Carson recognizes, as the strategist, that his path to winning is tougher through Carolyn then Yam Yam. I think Carson can beat Yam Yam, I don’t know about Carolyn. I have Carson #1 in the Winner Power Rankings because he has the best story/resume about growth, gaining confidence from the experience, and pulling the strings for most of the votes. Plus, he survived switching tribes, being sick, and being the “nerdy” underdog. His climb to the title of Sole Survivor is steeper with Carolyn with him and I think he knows it.
Can Heidi make something happen with her secret Immunity Idol?
The short answer is of course, this is Survivor! Having said that, Heidi hasn’t done ANYTHING to show she can mastermind and execute a blindside nor a idol play that drops the jaws of the jury when it counts most. If Heidi, Lauren, and Jaime are smart, and want ANY chance at winning, they need to 1-vote together, 2-exploit TIKA’s impending crack in their alliance. Lastly, if the bottom 3 vote together and Heidi can play her idol for whichever TIKA she thinks will be internally targeted and vote out whoever the other 3 want. By doing this, she would guarantee the “land of misfit toys group” at least final 4 with a chance to beat the last remaining TIKA in fire and make the ending of this season flip upside down. Maybe even a win for Heidi?!?! Tall, tall, hill to climb, but it’s possible.
No it isn’t. Heidi doesn’t have it in her.
Onto the episode…
VA VA - Night 21
Post-Tribal Council and the story is all around the shock of Carolyn having the idol and playing it for Carson. The jury loved it and Robert DeNiro aka Danny went home. Thankfully, Carolyn acknowledges her move didn’t make a difference in saving Carson or the outcome of the vote, but she wanted it to happen and she feels happy to tell everyone. (Carolyn gets her own rope)
Then, Carson throws out a question about the ❌ on the birdcage and Carolyn explains how she concocted that plan. (Carolyn ties a noose)
Next, Carolyn reveals what she did with the fake idol from the birdcage and how she buried in and Sarah found it. (Carolyn fits noose around her neck)
Yam Yam confesses how Carolyn’s “craziness” this whole time isn’t looking too crazy anymore and that Carolyn’s target is GROOOOOOWING and Yam Yam is getting afraid. Even Jaime chimes in about how Carolyn’s actually a big threat under the emotion and extravert. (Carolyn puts noose around her neck)
VA VA - Day 22
Let the idol hunt begin. With Carolyn playing the idol for Carson, everyone is back on the prowl looking. This could be exactly what Carolyn needs. This would be her ultimate ticket to not letting that noose she just tied for herself to end her game.
Now, Lauren brings up Carolyn’s name to Carson, Yam Yam, and Jaime. It’s the right move, a smart move. Lauren is actually strategizing and we mustn’t forget that this group of four is actually who worked together to ensure Danny went home. Yet, in a turn of events, Carson tells us that he wants to keep Yam Yam and Carolyn. I can’t believe it. He’s likely in a position of strength in comparison to the other TIKA, but it’s SOOOOOO RISKY. Carson will either change his POV on this by the end of the episode or he is willing to roll the dice and try to put himself in a final 3 of TIKA that could go any of 3 ways instead of positioning himself to go up against Heidi and Jaime and guarantee victory.
Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out but Carson is only a NASA engineer so.
REWARD CHALLENGE
Divide into two teams of 3
2 blindfolded members push third member in the giant sphere cage who’s guiding them.
REWARD - sanctuary for a foot massage, lunch of sandwiches, chocolate, fruit, juice, ice tea
Orange - Yam Yam and Lauren push Carson
Purple - Carolyn and Heidi push Jaime
Unsurprisingly, orange is light years ahead and Carolyn actually loses the cage. Typical Carolyn. Orange gets to the table maze and Carson, the best puzzle guy, easily navigates blindfolded Yam Yam and Lauren to victory.
Add another notch to Carson’s belt.
Now is the chance for Jaime and Heidi to make their move on Carolyn and break up TIKA. At the very least Jaime is thinking the right way. They have to put it out there to Carolyn, hard, to take out Yam Yam or Carson. Otherwise, they deserve to get voted out already more than they do now.
REWARD - SANCTUARY
Yam Yam gets his first reward of the season on day 22. After the sandwiches comes the massage. On the one hand the massage must feel INCREDIBLE because you’ve been walking on sand and sticks and camp for 22 days and your feet must be killing you.
On the other hand, this is the final 6 of Survivor and a chance for strategy talk at the most pivotal point of the game. There’s no room for zen moments or pleasure of any kind. What I took away from it is 🔥 Carson will make his mistake this episode 🔥. Lauren is definitely voting for Carolyn. Carson is definitely NOT voting for Carolyn. Yam Yam is going to vote out Carolyn. I think Yam Yam recognizes the opportunity is white hot for him to strike by voting with an eager Lauren and against a blindly loyal Carson to vote out Carolyn.
BACK AT CAMP - LOSERS
I like Jaime’s power move to flat out say to Heidi and Carolyn that she is voting for Carson and doesn’t want to hand him the million dollars.
“I do believe that Carson is this big threat, but I can’t lose Carson yet. I still need my numbers because I don’t want Jaime, Lauren and Heidi to team up.” - Carolyn
VA VA - POST REWARD
Carolyn and Carson reconvene to swap stories about how to keep TIKA strong but Yam Yam makes the move to speak with Jaime about Carolyn as the target. Jaime wants it to be Carson but Yam Yam is pushing Carolyn. Can Jaime park her plan and go with Yam Yam’s? They know that Carolyn’s the threat, a huge threat, and Yam Yam is knows it’s time to break up TIKA and make his move to win.
It’s winning time. I love that Yam Yam is stepping up and making this play. You have to. The body language doctor in me is reading Yam Yam’s eyes, face, and body language as he’s talking to Jaime. What I’m diagnosing is Yam Yam is beginning to make himself vulnerable to break up the TIKA 3 and have a real conversation with Jaime about taking out his longest ally. His eyes are widening a bit. He puts his hands on his head. His voice is a duller, lower volume, non-Yam Yam tone that we haven’t heard before.
PREDICTION: Yam Yam makes his move with the help of Jaime and Lauren. I’m fearing for my girl Carolyn.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Before diving in, the stakes are huge for this challenge. Final 6 and people are ready to make moves. It’s now or never. But, depending on who wins, the plans will likely shift drastically. If Carolyn wins, does Yam Yam go with Jaime’s plan to vote Carson?
Two ropes to balance a ball on a disc. At regular intervals you have to move backward and keep the ball balanced. Last to drop wins.
Winner is guaranteed FInal 5
No advantages of strength or fitness. All about balance. Anyone can win.
Except Jaime and Carolyn who are out quickly keeping the Yam Yam and Jaime plan of voting Carolyn in play. Carson drops next. Yam Yam, Lauren, and Heidi remain.
Next, Yam Yam is out. All TIKA players are vulnerable.
Lauren has a white ball and Heidi has a black ball. I wonder if there’s an advantage to having one or the other. I would rather have the black ball. Not distracted by a dirt mark and the black stands out more.
Shortly after a recovery early on in round 2, Heidi drops and Lauren wins her 2nd Immunity Challenge.
CHALLENGE SUCKED
This challenge sucked. The final 6 sucked at it. The challenge likely took less than 7 minutes. It’s boring to watch. Watching people balance a ball on a disc isn’t exactly the Super Bowl. I like the Immunity Challenges. Love them actually. Wanted a lot more from this and instead it was a fart in the wind. A smelly one.
PRE-TRIBAL SCRAMBLE - Day 23
TIKA is vulnerable and Yam Yam is ready to cement his plan. Carolyn starts the party by approaching Heidi about voting Jaime. Heidi is all idol talk.
Next, TIKA is at the water cooler and they’re ready to roll on Jaime. They are joined by Heidi too and they don’t expect Heidi to have an idol AT ALL.
Jaime and Lauren are ready to vote for Carolyn and Yam Yam steps up to talk to Carson.
“This is the most difficult vote for me tonight. Not only because I’m drawing my path to the end, but also because I might have to betray my biggest ally.” - Yam Yam
He knows that this is the time and he talks to Carson about voting Carolyn. His heart says no but his brain says yes. Personally, I’m shocked that he went to Carson about it. There’s risk there because Carson could blow up his spot by bringing this info to Carolyn. We don’t see that though. Instead, we see Carson honor his word that Yam Yam was his “number number 1”.
From the Carson angle, I feel like though Carolyn has been loyal and he values loyalty, he shows a rare moment of weakness with the tease of him not going with this plan.
TRIBAL COUNCIL
These players show they have done their homework when they bring EVERYTHING to Tribal. The rice, the paint/paint brushes and all their bags. They know that the final 5 hasn’t recently gone back to their camp so they are prepared and since Lauren is safe, she is technically holding everything. Smart gameplay. Llkely they will make an adjustment in 45 here.
The conversation goes from small talk and idols to Carson dropping “break up”. As Carson and Yam Yam maneuver their way through the question, the camera is pinned on Carolyn, her emotion, and her facial expressions which have been a constant theme of 44. The music changes, Yam Yam’s tone, and the stakes of a Final 6 vote pins the target directly on Carolyn.
My heart is racing.
PREDICTION: Carolyn gets voted out.
IDOLS/ADVANTAGES
Heidi plays her idol for herself - Stupid.
VOTES
Carolyn 2
Jaime 4
I can’t believe it. I really cannot believe it. We are again robbed of the big move and the right move. I don’t understand it. I can’t understand it. Look, I get that TIKA has dominated the game strategically and has been on the right side of the votes for a while. I understand that TIKA is loyal to their 3 and has shown it time and time again. Remember that noose I thought Carolyn made and put around her own neck? I guess it was never there.
I cannot and will not understand for the life of me why Yam Yam and Carson didn’t take their shot at Carolyn this vote. Let me rephrase, I don’t understand why Yam Yam didn’t take his shot at Carolyn. Maybe Carson truly will not vote out Carolyn and he will be unbeatable anyway whether she sits with him at final 3 or not, but here was your chance Yam Yam. Force the tie between Jaime and Carolyn. Force a revote. Have the awkwardness of Tribal come out. Take a stand and make your pledge to Heidi to switch her vote. Get Lauren and Jaime to back you. Do something!!!!
Perhaps I’m getting impatient. Perhaps I have an affinity for the big move and betrayals. Perhaps Jesse’s move on Cody is still FRESH in my mind (because Jesse is clearly the best player from the new era) and I wanted to see it again here by Yam Yam. Perhaps the idols and advantages have just fallen into the wrong hands this season other than Danny’s correct play to save Frannie, even fake idols put in the game by design, never had any payoff . Perhaps, the final 5 vote is when the calculus of making the big move checks out with a tight 3 being broken up then and only then. Or, perhaps their is a true bond between Carolyn, Carson, and Yam Yam and they are pulling off a true TAKI from season 1 back in Borneo and are going to vote it down to themselves at the end and let the jury votes fall where they shall with Heidi being kept around because her threat level is that of a golden retriever puppy.
I thought Yam Yam had the stones to pull the trigger here and vote out Carolyn. The editing agreed with me. leading up to Tribal Council and at Tribal. It wasn’t meant to be. My burning questions were answered - Carolyn lives to see another day (I’m still rooting for her) and I was right, Heidi had no chance of formulating a plan and executing it. She plays her idol for herself out of fear of being voted out when she could have played it for Carolyn or Jaime and made a move in the game. Instead, she guaranteed not seeing her name be written down again - to be voted out or to win.
Next week is the finale of Survivor 44 with the Final 5 of Carson, Carolyn, Yam Yam, Lauren, and Heidi. Three TIKA, one SOKA and one RATU. At this point, there’s nowhere to hide and not many moves to make. Lauren tried to make a move on Carolyn and was blocked by the loyal TIKA 3 and Heidi’s pathetic gameplay. Now, Lauren and Heidi are either sitting ducks to an inevitable TIKA 3 FTC or they will only be pawns in either Carson, Carolyn or Yam Yam’s “big move” at final 5.
WINNER RANKINGS
Going into the finale the game will be won by a TIKA member. Either Carson, Carolyn or Yam Yam will win the million and title of Sole Survivor.
GROUP D: ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE and WILL BE EMBARRASSED IF AT FTC
5 - Heidi
Never on the right side of anything meaningful. She was Danny’s #1 and that was it. She played the Control a Vote advantage wrong and it had no effect. She played her secret idol on herself at final 6 which shows no awareness of strategy or gameplay. If TIKA has to take a non-TIKA to FTC, Heidi is the greatest 3rd wheel to take possibly in the history of Survivor. She will get no questions asked and if she does, it will embarrass her because she did nothing in the game. I don’t think she has the underdog or underestimated angle either.
GROUP C: JUST NOT YOUR SEASON
4 - Lauren
She won two Immunity Challenges. She outlasted everyone in her original tribe. She has proposed people to vote like Heidi or Carolyn but nothing has come of it. She has a great backstory being a single mom and a teacher and doing this for all her kids. She just couldn’t get anything off the ground. TIKA was too much I guess.
GROUP B: I WOULDN’T BE SHOCKED IF EITHER OF THEM WON
3 - Yam Yam
He had his chance this episode to skyrocket to #1 in the rankings but he balked at it. He could have taken a shot at Carolyn but didn’t. He’s still super likeable. He’s still charismatic. He still has a story to tell the jury and a resume to pitch that could be a winning one. Missed opportunities this episode.
2 - Carolyn
Her whole game and strategies has been revealed to the jury those that she is still playing with and it didn’t get her voted out. Her TIKA alliance was strong enough to secure her a spot in final 5. Her craziness, emotion, and authenticity is no longer seen that way but rather as an increased threat level in the endgame, yet she’s still alive. I can’t believe it. I still think that people are underestimating her and that will be her trump card if sitting at FTC. She has a real chance to win and is very dangerous to sit next to.
GROUP A: FAVORITE
1 - Carson
Still the greatest strategic player. Still controlling the vote. Still the smartest player. Still has a great story to tell. He showed weakness momentarily this episode but in the end the vote went his way. I think everyone likes him and he will undoubtedly make a compelling case at FTC, but his achilles heel may be keeping Carolyn around. If he gets the FTC of all 3 TIKA members I think he is still the sun of that solar system but I think his outlook for beating Carolyn and Yam Yam are lost in space.
Thanks for reading this week. Appreciate the support. Be sure to outlike, outcomment, and outshare the rest all season long. I will be writing about each episode all the way through to the announcement of the winner of Survivor 44. See you next week.
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